Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model

 

 

 

Employment is forecast to continue its rebound from the pandemic low and to hit the pre-pandemic level in the 2nd quarter of 2024. The forecast growth rate from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is a modest 1.11%. Although the forecast value at the end of 2024 is above its level just before the pandemic hit, it is still slightly below the peak achieved in the 4th quarter of 2014. However, the forecast band includes the 2014:04 value.  

 

 

The state unemployment rate is forecast to fall slightly over the course of the year from its 2023:04 value of 4.0% to 3.7% at the end of 2024.

 

 

 

Real GSP (the total volume of goods and services produced within Louisiana) is forecast to dip slightly in the first quarter but then rise slightly throughout the rest of the year. The forecast growth rate from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is only 0.39%. The level of real GSP is forecast to remain below its pre-pandemic level. The forecast is for the rebased and revised real GSP. The base year is now 2017. The initial forecast from the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model made in August 2023 was for the old base year 2012 real GSP, so the numbers from that forecast aren’t directly comparable to the numbers in this forecast.  

Please note that the BEA has still not released historical quarterly data before 2018 for 2017 base year real GSP, so an ad hoc adjustment to the forecasting model was made to generate base year 2017 forecasts for real GSP. The next BEA release is scheduled for late March 2024, and we hope that the historical data will be released then. If it is, the 2024 forecast will be re-computed.

 

 

 

The all-transactions Louisiana house price index is forecast to rise modestly. The rate of growth from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is forecast to be 1.10%. Monetary policy remains tight and mortgage rates remain above their level in 2020-2021.

 

 

 

Employment in the Alexandria metro area is forecast to rise in 2024 although forecast employment at the end of 2024 remains well below its 2008:01 peak. The rate of growth in employment from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is forecast to be 0.88%.

 

 

 

Employment in the Baton Rouge metro area is forecast to continue its strong rebound from the pandemic-related plunge in employment. The forecast rate of growth in employment from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024, 3.33%, is the second strongest of any of the state’s metro areas.

 

 

 

Employment in the Hammond metro area for 2024 is expected to increase very slightly. The rate of growth from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is forecast to be a very low 0.30%. 

 

 

 

Employment in the Houma-Thibodaux metro is forecast to rise from the 2023 level but to remain well below its value just before the pandemic. The rate of growth from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is forecast to be 1.74%, the third fastest forecast growth of the state’s metro areas.  

 

 

 

The employment forecast for the Lafayette metro area is growth in 2024 beginning in the second quarter with employment at the end of 2024 rising above the pre-pandemic level. The rate of growth of employment from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is forecast to be 1.15%, the fourth fastest of the state metro areas.

 

 

 

Employment in the Lake Charles metro area is forecast to continue its slow rebound from the pandemic low. The forecast growth rate of 0.98% from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is the fifth fastest among the state’s metro areas.

 

 

 

Employment in the Monroe metro area is forecast to rise slightly during 2024, increasing in the first quarter and then remaining essentially flat the rest of the year. The forecast growth rate of employment from the 4th quarter of 2023 to 4th quarter of 2024 is only 0.34%.

 

 

 

Employment in the New Orleans-Metairie metro area is forecast to continue its strong rebound from the pandemic low and to end up just slightly below its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2024. The forecast growth rate from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is 4.42%, the strongest among the state’s metro areas.   

 

 

 

After recovering steadily from its pandemic low, the forecast is for employment for the Shreveport-Bossier City metro area for 2024 to rise slightly over the course of the year. The growth rate of employment from the 4th quarter of 2023 to the 4th quarter of 2024 is a low 0.40%.